Migration Rate Math
When did these Texas observers see the strongest migration this fall?
Fall, 2006

This week--a twist. Now that most monarchs have crossed into Mexico, we have fewer observations to report. So let's look at the migration past a single point on the Texas Gulf Coast. The observations below were made by Mr. and Mrs. Aschen on the the Lavaca Bay Causeway. Which day did they see the strongest migration? How many monarchs per hour did they see? Notice ways the Aschens counted and recorded their sightings. What else can you learn from their observations?

November 1
Dry front came in after midnight, wind is NW at 15 mph, 75 dF, partly cloudy. Monarch action has been good coming across Lavaca Bay ... first time I counted after 12 noon ... at the usual site on the north approach to Lavaca Bay Causeway, but this time I counted for a full hour in the 200' width. Hour starting at 12:20, total of 274, best 5 mintues 32, worst 15.

October 31
Went across the causeway at 7:10 and did a 30 minute count starting at 7:50 until 8:20. They kept coming at a rate of about 4 per minute until 9:00 and then the count began to drop off to about 2 per minute until 10:00 when the wind picked up from the E, then I could only find one about every five minutes coming from the NE, left at 10:30. The count for the 30 min. was 155 for an hourly avg of 310 best 5 minute count was 40 at 8:05 to 8:10.

October 29
As yesterday, had a good flow of monarchs in the early morning before the wind picked up from the SE ... same spot ... same way ... best 30 minute total was 153, for any average of 306 an hour, best 5 minutes was 45 and that was at 9:15 a.m. They were flying NE to SW, low to 50' up, steady, migrational flight ... looked like a 3-D monarch interstate in the sky, all going one way, but properly spaced. Numbers fell off quickly after 10:00 a.m. when the breeze could be seen to begin to stir the slick waters of Lavaca Bay and move things out of the ESE ever so slightly. Went back about 3:00 p.m. when the wind was 5 to 10 mph out of the SSE and we had to search to find a dozen monarchs nectaring, nothing flying. 71 dF, clear, another front about Thursday.

October 28
I took up my usual monitoring site, same as on the 24th, on the north approach peninsula to the Lavaca Bay Causeway, and counted five minutes inverals, first from 9:30 to 10:00 and then 12:20 to 12:50. From 9:30 to 10:00 the count was 297 monarchs for an average of 594 an hour, best for 5 minutes was 58. From 12:20 to 12:50 the count was 84 in 30 minutes for a 168 average in an hour, best 5 minutes was 22 monarchs. 594 monarchs an hour eclipsed the previous high of 190 an hour back on the 24th. I was monitoring a narrow 200' wide corridor. The flow turned off by 3:00 pm.

October 24
I went across the Lavaca Bay Causeway this morning and took up station at my usual monitoring site on the north approach peninsula and counted in five minute intervals from 9:30 to 10:00 ... looking out the front and left windows of the van ... sun was reflecting off the bay to the right so couldn't see anything there ... 30 minute total was 95 monarchs for an average of 190 per hour.

October 14
There was another flurry of monarchs crossing Lavaca Bay near the causeway at noon today. For an hour, Altus and I observed about 1 monarch a second between 50 and 300' zipping along with a 20 mph NE wind, over and past everything, heading across the bay, there were times we had three and five out the front window of the van plus a few over the "hood" or some we could see "playing" in the traffic. These monarchs were pulling a stunt we don't recall seeing before ... as they came along with the wind, never a wing beat, they would pull a quick 360 turn and continue for about 100' and pull another quick 360, never a wing beat, over and over. Was this manuver to adjust something in their flight, slow down a bit and mantain control, to orient themselves, or what? It was obvious and most, if not all, were doing "it". They were not tumbling, but very much in control.

Copyright 2006 Journey North. All Rights Reserved.
Please send all questions, comments, and suggestions to
our feedback form