Fact: There were only 12 roosts reported during the month of August this year. Last year there were 68 roosts reported in August.

Predict: Do you think there will be a smaller number of monarchs in Mexico this winter than last winter? Give reasons for your prediction.

Look at More Data: This chart shows how many roosts were reported to the Journey North database in past years during the month of August. Record the size of the winter population each year from the graph.

Year	Number of Roosts in August	Size of Winter Population	Click here to see a larger graph
2008	14	?
2007	68	4.61
2006	33	6.67
2005	37	5.92
2004	11	2.19
2003	15	11.12

Predict again!
Now what is your hypothesis? Based on data from the last five years, do you think there will be a smaller number of monarchs this winter in Mexico? Give reasons to explain your thinking

Challenge: What questions will scientists be asking as they watch this season's migration? Work with a partner to write possible questions on the back of this sheet. What questions do you have? Add them to the list!