Date: 06/04/2008

Number: 1

When will the Monarchs reach Winnipeg?

The eastern third of the US appears to have warmth, moisture,
milkweed and a reasonable number of Monarchs.

The middle third of the US appears to be cool and dry with
milkweed scarce and scant. Reports to dplex indicate to me
that you have few Monarchs. Then Journey North refers
to the Monarchs being stalled at 45deg north.

My records for the last 5 years show Monarchs arriving here
between May 29 and June 16. The last 2 years...June 2 and May 29.

My notes for 2004 say everything was running 2 weeks late -
that was the year they came on June 16 and this year seems worse.

The only pattern I see is that the Monarchs consistently
arrive 29 to 31 days after the first milkweed shoots are seen.

Without any real justification, I am saying that the Monarchs
will be here June 16. 30 days after the first milkweed shoots
which appeared on May 18.

Winnipeg, MB

Latitude: 49.9 Longitude: -97.1

Observed by:
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