Dr. David Aborn's 2022 Weather Forecasts for Migrating Songbirds #10

Published: 05/26/2022

Dear Journey North Readers,

There have been a couple of weather events this week that have affected migration. If you look at the weather map, you will see a large batch of rain over New England. This is the remnants of a tropical system that moved up from the Gulf of Mexico. The system moved onshore before it could develop into a tropical depression, but it is a reminder that we are about to head into tropical weather season (June 1–November 1). In any case, that rain combined with many birds flying though that area has resulted in fallout conditions. Birders in New York and Massachusetts have seen 24 species over warblers, with Blackpoll Warblers, American Redstarts, Yellow warblers, and Black-throated-blue Warblers being most numerous. They also reported large numbers of Red-eyed vireos and Gray Catbirds, along with Yellow-billed and Black-billed Cuckoos.

To the west of that system, flying conditions have been good, so there was a lot of migration in the Midwest earlier in the week. Tennessee Warblers, Nashville Warblers, Blue-winged Warblers, and Golden-winged Warblers were common in Wisconsin, while Canada Warblers, Wilson’s Warblers, and both cuckoo species frequent sights in Michigan. Minnesota saw an influx of Summer and Scarlet tanagers, Baltimore Orioles, and Acadian Flycatchers.

In the western US, migration conditions have been especially good, with clear skies and strong southerly winds. Probably the most impressive movement was with Western Tanagers; birders in Washington were reporting flocks in the hundreds! There were similar reports out of Idaho. There was also an influx of Townsend’s Warblers, Wilson’s Warblers, and Black-headed Grosbeaks into Oregon. Good flying conditions allowed more migrants to make all the way to Alaska, with the arrival of Swainson’s Thrushes and Blackpoll Warblers.

What does the coming week hold? Looking at the weather map, in addition to that remnant system, there is a stalled cold front over the Midwest and Southeast. This is the same system that brought snow to the Rockies just a day after they recorded temperatures in the 90’s! The poor flying weather has kept new birds from arriving and prevented birds that are in those area from moving. That front is expected to start moving again by tomorrow and clear the east coast by the weekend. There is some pretty cold air behind it; here in Tennessee morning temperatures are only going to be in the 50’s this weekend! Those north winds will keep birds grounded for a couple of days, but by the start of next week, winds will shift to the south, allowing birds to resume migration. Out west, the good flying weather is expected to continue, so people should still see lots of birds coming through.

We are not quite done with spring migration, so don’t put your binoculars away just yet!

Take care.

David Aborn

Cover photo: Scarlet Tanager, submitted by Diana in Schriever, LA (05/02/2022)