Question: Based on the progress so far, when do you predict the first monarchs will reach their winter home in Mexico?

 

Answer:
Mrs. Hoyt's class in Rochester, NY used a map and a meter stick to puzzle through this question. They estimated that the monarchs will migrate for 10 weeks in total (beginning August 30th). This would put the butterflies at the wintering sites in Mexico about November 15th.

This is a very good estimate! The first monarchs are usually spotted about November 1st. However, since the monarchs that were roosting on August 30th in the far north are probably not the leading edge of the migration, the November 15th date just could be when those butterflies arrive.