Prepared
by: Lincoln Brower, Linda Fink, Isabel Ramirez, Raul Zubieta and Daniel
Slayback
February
20, 2010
On 13 February 2010, we downloaded the data from our electronic WeatherHawk
weather station located in the Sierra Chincua, in the Monarch Butterfly
Biosphere Reserve. This instrument is at nearly the same elevation as
the Chincua butterfly colonies, and 2 – 4 km east of where the colonies
form each year. We provide here a preliminary summary of the severe storm
that caused extensive landslides, destruction of homes and tragic loss
of human lives in Rosario, Angangueo, and other parts of eastern Michoacan.
Weather
Data Suggests a Close Call
Anecdotal accounts on the internet have suggested variable butterfly mortality,
from 0% to 80% in different colonies. We have not made direct measures
of butterfly mortality in this storm, but our weather records, combined
with empirical data from Anderson and Brower (1996), Brower et al. (2004,
2009) and Fink et al. (in prep.) give insight into the interplay between
local microclimate and butterfly survival. It is clear that butterflies
suffered less than the local citizens—but only by a hair's breadth.
Heavy
Rainfall During the Dry Season
As is typical of the region's dry season weather pattern, no rain fell
in the area from 17 to 30 January 2010. Light rain began at about 11 pm
on 31 January and fell steadily from 6 am to 11 pm on 1 February, accumulating
3.9 cm (1.5 inches). Rain began again at 7 pm on 2 February and was continuous
and heavy until midnight on 4-5 February. The total precipitation on 4-5
February was 32.0 cm (12.6 inches); the entire storm produced 36.0 cm
(14.2 inches).
The
Concern: Wet Butterflies
We know that this heavy storm must have soaked the butterflies. We also
know that in January 2002, a combination of heavy precipitation followed
by an early morning temperature plunge resulted in 80% mortality of monarch
butterflies (Brower et al. 2004). Butterfly survival and mortality depend
not on low temperature and not on precipitation, but on the interaction
of the two, because wet butterflies have significantly less freeze resistance
than do dry butterflies.
During the
recent storm, from 31 January through midnight on 4-5 February, the hourly
temperature at our weather station ranged between 1.9 and 8.4 °C.
At these temperatures no butterflies suffer freeze mortality.
The
Crucial Morning: February 5th
Because the lowest air temperature occurs close to sunrise, the morning
temperatures on 5 February were crucial in determining the butterflies'
fate. On this morning, the minimum temperature at our weather station
reached -3.02°C at 7:42 am.
This temperature
was fortunate for the butterflies for two reasons:
- The
-3°C temperature was warmer than the crucial range for wet butterflies
of -4 to -6°C.
Our experimental data tell us that wet, wintering monarchs have sufficient
freeze resistance for few if any to be killed at the -3.02°C temperature.
In mid-winter, the majority of wet butterflies can survive many hours
of exposure to -4°C, but almost all will be killed by just a few
minutes of exposure to -6°C (Fink et al. in prep).
- It
was warmer inside the forest.
Because the oyamel fir canopy buffers the forest temperature,
most butterflies in the colonies would have experienced a minimum temperature
that we estimate to have been about 4°C warmer inside the forest
(Brower et al., 2009).
A
Lucky Chance to Dry
During the day on 5 February the skies were clear. From late morning through
mid-afternoon the temperature was 9 to 12 °C and the relative humidity
was very low, between 9% and 11%. These conditions would give the butterflies
the opportunity to dry their bodies and wings. This is fortunate, because
the next night -- 5-6 February -- was clear and the temperature dropped
to -5.96°C at the weather station. Depending on their specific locations
within the forest, if they had not had the opportunity to dry, some monarchs
would likely have frozen.
Weather
Data Reveals a Close Call
The weather data, therefore, tell us that this major storm very likely
did not cause major butterfly mortality. If the skies had cleared earlier
on the night of 4-5 February and a morning temperature plunge had occurred
while the butterflies were still wet, the outcome might have been dramatically
different.
Protection
from the Forest is Critical
It is well to remember that any thinning of the oyamel forest results
in less temperature buffering, lowering temperatures in the forest and
therefore increasing the probability of butterfly mortality during the
clearing that follows storms. Vigilance is needed to prevent tree removal
because the butterflies are overwintering on a microclimatic knife-edge.
Additional
news of concern: the Sierra Chincua was reported to have had 15 cm of
snow which was melted by rain on 18 February 2010. If conditions similar
to those described above prevail, damage to butterflies will be minimal.
However, where colonies have formed in and adjacent to thinned forests,
the chances of butterfly mortality are much higher.
As of 20
February we are still receiving contradictory anecdotal statements on
the extent of the mortality caused in several colonies by all these storms.
We will keep you informed.
References:
Anderson,
J.B. & Brower, L.P. (1996) Freeze-protection of overwintering monarch
butterflies in Mexico: critical role of the forest as a blanket and an
umbrella. Ecological Entomology, 21, 107-116.
Fink, L.S.,
Brower, L.P., Helton, T., and C. Kisiel. In prep. The ecology of cold-hardiness
in overwintering monarch butterflies.
Brower, L.P.,
Kust, D.R., Rendon-Salinas, E., Serrano, E.G., Kust, K.R., Miller, J.,
Fernandez del Rey, C., & Pape, K. (2004). Catastrophic winter storm
mortality of monarch butterflies in Mexico during January 2002. In The
Monarch Butterfly. Biology and Conservation (eds K.S. Oberhauser &
M.J. Solensky), pp. 151-166. Cornell University Press, Ithaca.
Brower, L.P.,
Williams, E.H., Slayback, D.A., Fink, L.S., Ramirez, M.I., Zubieta, R.R.,
Limon Garcia, M.I., Gier, P., Lear, J.A., & Van Hook, T. (2009) Oyamel
fir tree trunks provide thermal advantages for overwintering monarch butterflies
in Mexico. Insect Conservation and Diversity, 2, 163-175. |
Meet Dr. Lincoln Brower
It
is clear that butterflies suffered less than the local citizens—but
only by a hair's breadth. |
Wet
butterflies have significantly less freeze resistance than do dry
butterflies. |
For wet butterflies, the crucial range of temperatures is -4°C
to -6°C. The majority of butterflies can survive many hours of
exposure to -4°C, but almost all will be killed by just a few
minutes of exposure to -6°C. |
If
the skies had cleared earlier on the night of 4-5 February and a morning
temperature plunge had occurred while the butterflies were still wet,
the outcome might have been dramatically different. |
|