Not All Monarchs Make it to Mexico
What Do Florida Tagging
Results Suggest?
(More
True Stories About
Tagged Monarch Butterflies)
Only 3
of Mr. RuBino's 12,500 tagged monarchs have been recovered in Mexico.
He said this recovery rate is very, very low. Overall, an average of
one in 100 tagged monarchs is recovered in Mexico (which is 1%.)
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Where
Do Monarchs Tagged on the Florida Coast in Fall Go? |
The
Answer
Mr. RuBino would expect 125 recoveries in Mexico! So why has he only
had three? What happens to monarchs once they reach the Florida coast?
We plotted his tag recoveries on this map. Mr. RuBino describes what
he’s learned:
"I
know for certain that, in the fall, monarchs passing through this area
spread fairly equally to the west and southeast. We've had a few recoveries
along the Gulf coast to the west of us, and some recoveries southeast
of us, down the peninsula. Since only 3 of the almost 12,500 monarchs
tagged at St. Marks since 1988 made it to Mexico, I fear that most of
them end up in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico."
The
Importance of Negative Data
Lessons Learned from Mr. RuBino
By the way, this research shows how important it is to collect negative
data. Mr. RuBino kept tagging monarchs even though his results were
negative (no tag recoveries). Look how many years it took to tag 12,500
butterflies! Surely he must have been discouraged at times, but he didn’t
give up. As you look at the map showing his tag recoveries, think about
what his perseverance has shown us about monarch migration! What did
you learn? What new questions do his data raise?
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