January 31, 2011
Our winter (actually beginning mid-Dec 2010) has been much colder than normal. For example, the historical mean night-time low for Folly Beach during Dec is ~40 0F. The actual night-time low for Dec 2010 was below this historical average on all but 3 nights! The night-time low was >32 0F on 18 nights in Dec 2010 – and >28 0F on 10 nights – and >25 0F on 4 nights. The historical mean night-time low for Folly Beach during Jan is ~37 0F. The actual night-time low for Jan 2011 was below this historical average on all but 9 nights! The night-time low was >32 0F on 12 nights in Jan 2011 – and >28 0F on 6 nights – and >25 0F on 4 nights.

Also, the day-time highs (mean ~62 0F and ~59 0F for Dec and Jan, respectively) were below average for 25 and 19, respectively, for Dec 2010 and Jan 2011. There have been few days during either month when weather (sunny and temp > ~58 0F) was conducive to monarch activity. The water temperature is so low (~45-48 0F) in the estuary and nearshore ocean that even rather light winds over the water can lower the real-feel temperature considerably.

As a result of the above information, I have only made a few winter trips in search of monarchs, and most were unproductive. Yesterday seemed promising, with the temp ~70 0F on James Island (away from water), but when I got on Folly Beach (Island), the temperature was ~56 0F with the wind ~15 mph. I saw no monarchs!

I did see, capture, and tag two monarchs at Folly Beach on 1 Jan 2011, but I have seen no others since (really no acceptable weather for days on which I was able to get out). So, I have only seen two "winter" monarchs in the Charleston area so far. Perhaps others have survived the cold. I should find out once the weather moderates a bit over the next month or so.

I did tag 130 monarchs from 15 Nov through 31 Dec 2010; 9 at Ft. Johnson, James Island and 121 at Folly Beach. I also recaptured 12 monarchs (one four times, one three times, four twice, and six once) during this period that I had tagged from 3-14 Nov. One of these monarchs moved ~7 miles north from Folly beach to Ft. Johnson! However, I only tagged 10 monarchs during Dec 2010 (I saw only about 4-5 others). In contrast, I tagged 127 monarchs in Dec 2009! I only recaptured 1 monarch in Dec 2010 – I tagged it at Folly Beacjh on 27 Nov and recaptured it on 22 Dec (after 12 subfreezing nights) and 25 days ater it was tagged. The early cold in Dec 2010 may have produced some mortality, but no doubt many monarchs had settled along the SC coast for the 2010-2011 winter.

I hope to see more survivors once the weather moderates in late February and early March, and once "winter" flowers such as dandelion begin to bloom.