Early Bird Contest for Shageluk, Alaska

When do you predict the first robin will arrive this spring?

Students at Innoko River School in Shageluk, Alaska, keep data for the first sighting of Gonondadoy (Deg Xinag for "Robin") in their far-north community. This data can help you predict the answer to this question: When will the first robin arrive in Shageluk, Alaska, this spring?
Year
First Robin in Shageluk, AK
1997 April 20
1998 April 16
1999 April 27
2000 April 21
2001 May 8 (heard May 2)
2002 April 25 (heard Apr. 17)
2003 April 24
2004 April 23
2005 April 9
2006
April 23
2007 April 22 (heard Apr. 20)
2008 April 21
2009 April 25
2010 April 26
2011 May 4 (heard May 1)
2012 April 20 (seen and heard)
2013 May 14
2014 ?